MeritValue

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

MGYdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp earns about 29% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.08B1$1.69B2$1.23B3$1.32B3$1.31B3
Net income$417.3M4$893.8M5$388.3M6$366M6$325.3M6
Operating cash flow$788.5M7$1.3B8$855.8M9$920.9M9$878.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$776.2M10$780.8M11$785.7M12$785M12$393.3M13
Cash & equivalents$367M14$675.4M15$401.1M16$260M17$266.8M17
Diluted shares175.4M187.9M188.4M186.5M185.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$107.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.53
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.19

10 shares is a claim on $107.72 of net worth that earned you $17.53 last year, against $21.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 56%FY23 20%FY24 16%FY25 16%

It earned an average 29% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 49% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$388.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698990-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698990-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698990-26-000005 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698990-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698990-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698990-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698990-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698990-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698990-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698990-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698990-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698990-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001698990-26-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698990-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698990-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698990-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698990-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)