Marblegate Capital Corp

MGTEdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Marblegate Capital Corp earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$21M1$48.5M1
Net income$9.36M2−$44.9M2
Operating cash flow$10.3M3$1.17M3
Capital expenditure$04$247,0004
Free cash flow (derived)$10.3M3$922,0003
Total debt$05$42M5
Cash & equivalents$35.2M6$25.3M6
Diluted shares63.0M71.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.91

10 shares is a claim on $69.28 of net worth that earned you −$6.33 and generated $0.13 of cash last year, against $5.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 2y
FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 2y

Share count is up 13% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-125186 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-125186 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-125186 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-125186 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-125186 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-125186 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)