MeritValue

MCGRATH RENTCORP

MGRCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MCGRATH RENTCORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.76 and $179.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$128.8M1$155.2M1$831.8M2$910.9M2$944.2M2
Net income$89.7M3$115.1M4$174.6M5$231.7M5$156.3M5
Operating cash flow$195.7M6$194.4M7$95.3M8$374.4M8$255.7M8
Capital expenditure$2.68M9$17.6M10$44M11$40.2M11$44.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$193.1M6$176.8M7$51.4M8$334.1M8$211.3M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.49M12$957,00013$877,00014$807,00015$295,00015
Diluted shares24.5M24.5M24.5M24.6M24.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$502.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.78
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $502.18 of net worth that earned you $63.45 and generated $85.78 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 14%FY23 15%FY24 24%FY25 14%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.76 and $179.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$179.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.1%
  • fcfBase$211.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$159.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.1%
  • fcfBase$211.3M
Earnings Power Value
$65.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$156.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $159.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$122.57
Base6.1%$159.65
Bull11.1%$196.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003738 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071463 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017876 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071463 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017876 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071463 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017876 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071463 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003738 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017876 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071463 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)