MeritValue

MGP INGREDIENTS INC

MGPIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MGP INGREDIENTS INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.92 and $44.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$626.7M1$782.4M2$836.5M3$703.6M3$536.4M3
Net income$91.3M4$109.5M5$107.5M6$34.7M6−$107.8M6
Operating cash flow$88.3M7$88.9M8$83.8M9$102.3M9$121.5M9
Capital expenditure$47.4M10$45.3M11$55.3M12$71.2M12$45.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$40.9M7$43.6M8$28.5M9$31.1M9$76M9
Total debt$275.1M13$266M13$293.9M14$329.5M15$260.1M16
Cash & equivalents$21.6M17$47.9M18$18.4M19$25.3M20$18.5M20
Diluted shares20.7M22.1M22.2M22.0M21.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$336.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$50.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$121.73

10 shares is a claim on $336.3 of net worth that earned you −$50.47 and generated $35.59 of cash last year, against $121.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 10%FY24 3%FY25 -8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.92 and $44.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.1M
Earnings Power Value
$44.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$91.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.49
Base0.0%$9.49
Bull5.0%$14.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006149 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007962 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000835011-26-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006149 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007962 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000835011-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006149 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007962 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000835011-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006149 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007962 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000835011-26-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004693 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006149 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007962 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000835011-26-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004693 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006149 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007962 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000835011-26-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)