MeritValue

MAGNITE, INC.

MGNIdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MAGNITE, INC. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0 and $68.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$468.4M1$577.1M2$619.7M3$668.2M3$714M3
Net income$65,0004−$130.3M5−$159.2M6$22.8M6$144.6M6
Operating cash flow$126.6M7$192.6M8$214.4M9$235.2M9$236.2M9
Capital expenditure$17.7M10$30.8M11$26.8M12$32.8M12$70.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$108.9M7$161.7M8$187.6M9$202.4M9$165.6M9
Total debt$1.49B13$1.48B14$1.08B15$1.11B16$1.11B16
Cash & equivalents$230.4M17$326.3M18$326.2M18$483.2M19$553.4M19
Diluted shares136.3M132.9M136.6M146.8M153.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$59.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$72.33

10 shares is a claim on $59.98 of net worth that earned you $9.4 and generated $10.77 of cash last year, against $72.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -4%FY23 -6%FY24 4%FY25 7%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0 and $68.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase$187.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase$187.6M
Earnings Power Value
$0
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.8
Base19.9%$35.96
Bull20.0%$36.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001595974-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001595974-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001595974-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001595974-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001595974-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001595974-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001595974-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001595974-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001595974-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001595974-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001595974-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001595974-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001595974-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001595974-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001595974-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001595974-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001595974-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001595974-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001595974-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)