MeritValue

MGM Resorts International

MGMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MGM Resorts International earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 43% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.69 and $238.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.68B1$13.1B2$16.2B3$17.2B3$17.5B3
Net income$1.25B4$1.47B5$1.14B6$746.6M6$205.9M6
Operating cash flow$1.37B7$1.76B8$2.69B9$2.36B9$2.53B9
Capital expenditure$490.7M10$765.1M11$931.8M12$1.15B12$1.07B12
Free cash flow (derived)$882.7M7$991.4M8$1.76B9$1.21B9$1.46B9
Total debt$25.5B13$17.4B14$12.7B15$12.7B16$12.5B16
Cash & equivalents$4.7B17$5.91B18$2.93B19$2.42B20$2.06B20
Diluted shares487.4M413.0M358.6M310.2M277.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$87.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$449.38

10 shares is a claim on $87.64 of net worth that earned you $7.42 and generated $52.67 of cash last year, against $449.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 5%FY23 13%FY24 8%FY25 2%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−43% shares · 5y

Share count is down 43% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.69 and $238.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$238.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.3%
  • fcfBase$1.46B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$123.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.3%
  • fcfBase$1.46B
Earnings Power Value
$42.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.14B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $123.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.76
Base18.3%$123.11
Bull20.0%$134.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789570-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789570-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789570-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789570-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789570-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789570-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789570-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789570-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789570-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789570-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789570-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789570-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789570-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789570-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789570-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789570-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789570-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789570-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789570-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789570-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)