MeritValue

Millennium Group International Holdings Ltd

MGIHdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Millennium Group International Holdings Ltd earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.6M1$66.2M2$45.6M3$38.5M3$25.3M3
Net income$3.67M4$4.08M5−$354,1116−$8.77M6−$6.32M6
Operating cash flow$5.34M7$2.04M8$8.11M9−$4.11M9−$1.72M9
Capital expenditure$808,30210$510,78011$186,56512$2.38M12$2.02M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.53M7$1.53M8$7.92M9−$6.48M9−$3.74M9
Total debt—$31.6M13$26.8M14$11.2M15$12.2M15
Cash & equivalents$21.3M16$18.8M17$27.6M18$13.3M19$10.7M19
Diluted shares10.0M10.0M10.3M11.3M11.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.61
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.86

10 shares is a claim on $22.14 of net worth that earned you −$5.61 and generated −$3.33 of cash last year, against $10.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 8%FY23 1%FY24 -21%FY25 -17%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 61% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-081558 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-103120 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-081558 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-103120 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-081558 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-103120 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-081558 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-103120 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-081558 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-103120 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-081558 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-091945 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-103120 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)