MeritValue

MGE ENERGY INC

MGEEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

MGE ENERGY INC earns about 10% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $33.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$606.6M1$714.5M2$690.4M3$676.9M3$743.7M3
Net income$105.8M4$111M5$117.7M6$120.6M6$135.9M6
Operating cash flow$137.5M7$153.7M8$237.6M9$277.8M9$263.2M9
Capital expenditure$153.2M10$175M11$222.1M12$236.9M12$343.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$15.6M7−$21.3M8$15.5M9$40.9M9−$80M9
Total debt$624.6M13$710.1M14$762M15$769M16$908.4M16
Cash & equivalents$17.4M17$11.6M18$11.1M19$21.3M20$5.67M20
Diluted shares36.2M36.2M36.2M36.2M36.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$356.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.16
Free cash flow it threw off
−$21.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$248.38

10 shares is a claim on $356.55 of net worth that earned you $37.16 and generated −$21.87 of cash last year, against $248.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 45% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$15.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$15.5M
Earnings Power Value
$33.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$117.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017706 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026262 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067036 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017706 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026262 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026262 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017706 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026262 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003632 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017706 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026262 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003632 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026262 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)