MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC

MGAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.01 and $45.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$36.2B1$37.8B2$42.8B3$42.8B4$42B4
Net income$1.51B5$592M6$1.21B7$1.01B8$829M8
Operating cash flow$2.94B9$2.1B10$3.15B11$3.63B12$3.6B12
Capital expenditure$1.37B13$1.68B14$2.5B15$2.18B16$1.31B16
Free cash flow (derived)$1.57B9$414M10$649M11$1.46B12$2.29B12
Total debt$7.99B17$7.01B18$10.5B19$9.96B20$9.42B20
Cash & equivalents$2.95B21$1.23B22$1.2B23$1.25B24$1.61B24
Diluted shares302.8M291.2M286.6M286.9M282.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$442.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$80.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$333.59

10 shares is a claim on $442.23 of net worth that earned you $29.35 and generated $80.88 of cash last year, against $333.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 4%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 5%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.01 and $45.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.46B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.46B
Earnings Power Value
$37.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.01B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.99
Base0.0%$45.99
Bull5.0%$63.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-087951 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080656 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-066935 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128771 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-087951 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080656 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-066935 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128771 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-087951 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-066935 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128771 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-087951 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080656 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-066935 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128771 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-087951 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080656 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-066935 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128771 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-087951 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-066935 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128771 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)