Mistras Group, Inc.
MGdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileThe thesis, from the filings
Mistras Group, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $677.1M1 | $687.4M2 | $705.5M3 | $729.6M3 | $724M3 |
| Net income | $3.86M4 | $6.5M5 | −$17.5M6 | $19M6 | $16.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $42.3M7 | $26.4M8 | $26.7M9 | $50.1M9 | $33M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $18.2M10 | $12.6M11 | $20.9M12 | $17.9M12 | $24.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $24.1M7 | $13.8M8 | $5.89M9 | $32.2M9 | $8.31M9 |
| Total debt | $405.1M13 | $382.5M14 | $380.8M15 | $339.3M16 | $356M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $24.1M17 | $20.5M18 | $17.6M19 | $18.3M20 | $28M20 |
| Diluted shares | 30.1M | 30.2M | 30.3M | 31.6M | 32.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$73.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$111.04
10 shares is a claim on $73.34 of net worth that earned you $5.25 and generated $2.59 of cash last year, against $111.04 of debt.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 -0%FY24 4%FY25 3%
It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y
Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$8.31M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$8.31M
Earnings Power Value
$2.1
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$6.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.35
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436126-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436126-25-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016765 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436126-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436126-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016765 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436126-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436126-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436126-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436126-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016765 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436126-23-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436126-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001436126-25-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016765 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436126-23-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436126-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001436126-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016765 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)