MeritValue

MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP

MFINdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP earns about 24% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$159M1$196.6M2$251M3$290.7M3$315.3M3
Net income$54.1M4$43.8M5$55.1M6$35.9M6$43M6
Operating cash flow$78.7M7$108.7M8$113.8M9$108.7M9$126.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$220M10$219.3M11$243.5M12$281.2M13$311.2M13
Cash & equivalents$64.5M14$33.2M15$52.6M16$98.2M17$136.3M17
Diluted shares24.9M23.9M23.2M23.6M24.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$168.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.75
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$128.36

10 shares is a claim on $168.52 of net worth that earned you $17.75 last year, against $128.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 16%FY23 20%FY24 32%FY25 35%

It earned an average 24% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 41% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$18.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$43.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027942 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038693 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100121 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027942 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038693 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100121 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027942 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038693 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100121 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007273 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027942 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038693 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100121 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007273 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027942 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038693 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100121 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)