MFA FINANCIAL, INC.
MFAdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
MFA FINANCIAL, INC. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.88 and $25.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $362.3M1 | $482.4M2 | $605.6M3 | $724M3 | $745.1M3 |
| Net income | $328.9M4 | −$231.6M5 | $80.2M6 | $119.3M6 | $176.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $137.8M7 | $355.3M8 | $108.7M9 | $200.1M9 | $76.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $12M10 | $300,00010 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $125.8M7 | $355M8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $304.7M11 | $334.2M12 | $318M13 | $338.9M14 | $213.2M14 |
| Diluted shares | 118.7M | 103.2M | 103.6M | 105.1M | 104.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $175.77 of net worth that earned you $17 last year.
It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.88 and $25.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$125.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$125.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$119.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.33 |
| Base | 5.0% | $23.51 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $28.52 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001055160-24-000005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001055160-25-000004 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001055160-26-000004 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001055160-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001055160-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001055160-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001055160-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001055160-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001055160-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001055160-23-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001055160-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001055160-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001055160-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001055160-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)