MeritValue

Meta Platforms, Inc.

METAdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Meta Platforms, Inc. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $158.5 and $1,036.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$117.9B1$116.6B2$134.9B3$164.5B3$201B3
Net income$39.4B4$23.2B5$39.1B6$62.4B6$60.5B6
Operating cash flow$57.7B7$50.5B8$71.1B9$91.3B9$115.8B9
Capital expenditure$18.7B10$31.2B11$27B12$37.3B12$69.7B12
Free cash flow (derived)$39B7$19.3B8$44.1B9$54.1B9$46.1B9
Total debt$013$19.8B14$36.8B15$57.7B16$117.5B16
Cash & equivalents$16.6B17$14.7B18$41.9B19$43.9B19$35.9B19
Diluted shares2.86B2.70B2.63B2.61B2.57B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$843.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$234.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$179.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$456.44

10 shares is a claim on $843.99 of net worth that earned you $234.88 and generated $179.13 of cash last year, against $456.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 18%FY23 27%FY24 32%FY25 20%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $158.5 and $1,036.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,036.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$46.1B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$552.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$46.1B
Earnings Power Value
$158.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$39.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$211.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $552.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$224.23
Base20.0%$552.33
Bull20.0%$552.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326801-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326801-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003942 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326801-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326801-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003942 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326801-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326801-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003942 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326801-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326801-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003942 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326801-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326801-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326801-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003942 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326801-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326801-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003942 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)