MeritValue

METLIFE INC

METdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

METLIFE INC earns about 44% on invested capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $68.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.07B1$2.11B2$2.23B3$2.25B3$2.44B3
Net income$6.86B4$5.28B5$1.58B6$4.43B6$3.38B6
Operating cash flow$12.3B7$13B8$13.7B9$14.6B9$17.1B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$441M10$274M11$119M12$465M13$355M13
Cash & equivalents$20B14$20.2B15$20.6B16$20.1B17$22B17
Diluted shares869.4M808.9M762.3M711.1M673.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$421.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.19
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.27

10 shares is a claim on $421.77 of net worth that earned you $50.19 last year, against $5.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
44% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 59%FY23 23%FY24 64%FY25 58%

It earned an average 44% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$68.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.43B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099219-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099219-25-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099219-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099219-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099219-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099219-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099219-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099219-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099219-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099219-23-000045 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099219-24-000035 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099219-25-000044 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001099219-26-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099219-23-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099219-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099219-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001099219-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)