MeritValue

MESOBLAST LTD

MESOdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MESOBLAST LTD earns about -13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 97% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.43M1$10.2M2$7.5M3$5.9M3$17.2M3
Net income−$98.8M4−$91.3M5−$81.9M6−$88M6−$102.1M6
Operating cash flow−$100.7M7−$65.8M8−$63.3M9−$48.5M9−$50M9
Capital expenditure——$264,00010$271,00010$680,00010
Free cash flow (derived)——−$63.5M9−$48.7M9−$50.6M9
Total debt$147.4M11$101.7M11$108.8M12$114.3M13$121.9M13
Cash & equivalents$136.9M14$60.4M15$71.3M15$63M15$161.6M15
Diluted shares648.7M650.5M814.2M1.14B1.28B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.8
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.95

10 shares is a claim on $4.67 of net worth that earned you −$0.8 and generated −$0.4 of cash last year, against $0.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 -13%FY22 -13%FY23 -12%FY24 -13%FY25 -14%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+97% shares · 5y

Share count is up 97% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001345099-23-000059 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001345099-24-000063 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001345099-25-000067 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001345099-23-000059 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001345099-24-000063 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001345099-25-000067 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001345099-23-000059 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001345099-24-000063 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001345099-25-000067 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001345099-25-000067 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-030576 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001345099-24-000063 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001345099-25-000067 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001345099-24-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001345099-25-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalents)