MeritValue

MERCER INTERNATIONAL INC.

MERCdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MERCER INTERNATIONAL INC. earns about 0% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.8B1$2.28B2$1.99B3$2.04B3$1.87B3
Net income$171M4$247M5−$242.1M6−$85.1M6−$497.9M6
Operating cash flow$182.2M7$360.7M8−$69M9$90.2M9$8.59M9
Capital expenditure$159.4M10$178.7M11$136.3M12$84.3M12$88.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$22.8M7$181.9M8−$205.3M9$5.89M9−$80M9
Total debt$1.24B13$1.35B14$1.61B15$1.47B16$1.61B16
Cash & equivalents$345.6M17$354M18$314M19$184.9M20$186.8M20
Diluted shares66.3M66.6M66.4M66.8M66.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$74.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$239.81

10 shares is a claim on $10.17 of net worth that earned you −$74.38 and generated −$11.95 of cash last year, against $239.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 -7%FY24 1%FY25 -21%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015942 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024217 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048855 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015942 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024217 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048855 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015942 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024217 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048855 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015942 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024217 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048855 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015942 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024217 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048855 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015942 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024217 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048855 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)