METHANEX CORP
MEOHdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
METHANEX CORP earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.07 and $87.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.41B1 | $4.31B2 | $3.72B3 | $3.72B4 | $3.59B4 |
| Net income | $555.9M5 | $462.3M6 | $284.1M7 | $250.2M8 | $144.8M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $994.4M9 | $987.3M10 | $660.3M11 | $737.2M12 | $1.02B12 |
| Capital expenditure | $103.5M13 | $145.7M14 | $178.5M15 | $101.3M16 | $99M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $890.9M9 | $841.6M10 | $481.8M11 | $635.9M12 | $916.6M12 |
| Total debt | $2.16B17 | $2.15B18 | $2.14B19 | $2.41B20 | $2.75B20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $932.1M21 | $857.7M22 | $458M23 | $891.9M23 | $425.3M23 |
| Diluted shares | 74.8M | 69.2M | 67.4M | 67.4M | 77.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $315.91 of net worth that earned you $18.72 and generated $118.51 of cash last year, against $355.95 of debt.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.07 and $87.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$635.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$635.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$284.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $87.38 |
| Base | 0.0% | $87.38 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $115.82 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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- 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007564 (Borrowings)
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