MeritValue

MERCADOLIBRE INC

MELIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MERCADOLIBRE INC earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $201.75 and $8,194.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.71B1$7.45B2$10.5B3$15.1B3$20.3B3
Net income$83M4$482M5$987M6$1.91B6$2B6
Operating cash flow$965M7$2.94B8$5.14B9$7.92B9$12.1B9
Capital expenditure$573M10$454M10$509M10$860M11$1.34B11
Free cash flow (derived)$392M7$2.49B8$4.63B9$7.06B9$10.8B9
Total debt$3.52B12$4.76B13$4.5B14$5.72B15$9.19B15
Cash & equivalents$2.59B16$1.91B17$2.56B18$2.64B19$3.67B19
Diluted shares49.8M51.3M51.0M50.7M50.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,331.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$393.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$2,124.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,813.31

10 shares is a claim on $1,331.04 of net worth that earned you $393.91 and generated $2,124.96 of cash last year, against $1,813.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 10%FY23 20%FY24 26%FY25 16%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 161% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $201.75 and $8,194.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8,194.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$7.06B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4,430.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$7.06B
Earnings Power Value
$201.75
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$987M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$343.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4,430.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1,880.18
Base20.0%$4,430.08
Bull20.0%$4,430.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099590-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099590-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099590-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099590-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099590-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099590-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099590-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099590-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099590-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099590-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001099590-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099590-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099590-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099590-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001099590-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001099590-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001099590-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001099590-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001099590-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)