Medpace Holdings, Inc.
MEDPdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Medpace Holdings, Inc. earns about 112% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $99.25 and $1,172.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.14B1 | $1.46B2 | $1.89B3 | $2.11B3 | $2.53B3 |
| Net income | $181.8M4 | $245.4M5 | $282.8M6 | $404.4M6 | $451.1M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $263.3M7 | $388.1M8 | $433.4M9 | $608.8M9 | $713.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $28.3M10 | $36.9M11 | $36.6M12 | $36.5M12 | $31.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $235.1M7 | $351.2M8 | $396.7M9 | $572.3M9 | $681.9M9 |
| Total debt | $013 | $50M14 | $014 | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $461.3M15 | $28.3M16 | $245.4M17 | $669.4M18 | $497M18 |
| Diluted shares | 37.7M | 33.7M | 31.8M | 32.0M | 29.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $155.47 of net worth that earned you $152.78 and generated $230.93 of cash last year.
It earned about 112% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $99.25 and $1,172.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$572.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$572.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$282.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $293.75 |
| Base | 20.0% | $648.73 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $648.73 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001668397-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001668397-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001668397-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001668397-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001668397-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001668397-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001668397-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001668397-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001668397-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001668397-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001668397-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001668397-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001668397-23-000008 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001668397-24-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001668397-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001668397-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001668397-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001668397-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)