MeritValue

MEDIFAST INC

MEDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MEDIFAST INC earns about 94% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.61 and $93.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.53B1$1.6B2$1.07B3$602.5M3$385.8M3
Net income$164M4$143.6M5$99.4M6$2.09M6−$18.7M6
Operating cash flow$94.5M7$194.6M8$147.7M9$24.5M9$6.86M9
Capital expenditure$34.2M10$16.7M11$6.48M12$7.45M12$5.61M12
Free cash flow (derived)$60.3M7$177.9M8$141.2M9$17M9$1.25M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$104.2M13$87.7M14$94.4M15$90.9M16$89.3M16
Diluted shares11.8M11.3M10.9M11.0M11.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$181.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.14
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $181.15 of net worth that earned you −$17 and generated $1.14 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
94% avg · 5y
FY21 167%FY22 213%FY23 93%FY24 2%FY25 -4%

It earned about 94% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.61 and $93.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17M
Earnings Power Value
$93.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$99.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.28
Base0.0%$30.28
Bull5.0%$35.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005620 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008656 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005620 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008656 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005620 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005620 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006094 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008656 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004341 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005620 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)