MeritValue

MIMEDX GROUP, INC.

MDXGdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MIMEDX GROUP, INC. earns about -34% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 36% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$242M1$267.8M2$321.5M3$348.9M3$418.6M3
Net income−$10.3M4−$30.2M5$58.2M6$42.4M6$48.6M6
Operating cash flow−$1.98M7−$17.9M8$26.8M9$66.2M9$74M9
Capital expenditure$3.22M10$1.51M10$1.99M10——
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.2M7−$19.4M8$24.8M9——
Total debt$98.1M11$98.6M12$99.1M13$37.8M14$36M14
Cash & equivalents$87.1M15$66M16$82M17$104.4M18$166.1M18
Diluted shares110.4M112.9M146.0M149.0M149.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.24
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.4

10 shares is a claim on $17.13 of net worth that earned you $3.24 last year, against $2.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-34% avg · 5y
FY21 -121%FY22 -133%FY23 15%FY24 33%FY25 38%

It earned an average -34% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+36% shares · 5y

Share count is up 36% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 63% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$42.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376339-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376339-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376339-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376339-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376339-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376339-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376339-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376339-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376339-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376339-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376339-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376339-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376339-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001376339-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001376339-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001376339-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001376339-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001376339-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)