MeritValue

Medtronic plc

MDTdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Medtronic plc earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.51 and $63.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$31.7B1$31.2B2$32.4B3$33.5B3$36.4B3
Net income$5.04B4$3.76B5$3.68B6$4.66B6$4.8B6
Operating cash flow$7.35B7$6.04B8$6.79B9$7.04B9$7.33B9
Capital expenditure$1.37B10$1.46B11$1.59B12$1.86B12$1.9B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.98B7$4.58B8$5.2B9$5.19B9$5.43B9
Total debt$3.74B13$20M14$2.17B15$2.87B15$1.79B16
Cash & equivalents$3.71B17$1.54B18$1.28B19$2.22B20$1.95B20
Diluted shares1.35B1.33B1.33B1.29B1.29B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$384
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.88

10 shares is a claim on $384 of net worth that earned you $37.27 and generated $42.12 of cash last year, against $13.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 11%FY26 10%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 52% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.51 and $63.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.1%
  • fcfBase$5.2B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.1%
  • fcfBase$5.2B
Earnings Power Value
$37.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.66B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$57.8
Base2.1%$63.37
Bull7.1%$78.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-29 · accession 0001613103-24-000072 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-28 · accession 0001613103-25-000091 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-26 · accession 0001628280-26-044354 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-29 · accession 0001613103-24-000072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-28 · accession 0001613103-25-000091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-26 · accession 0001628280-26-044354 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-29 · accession 0001613103-24-000072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-28 · accession 0001613103-25-000091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-26 · accession 0001628280-26-044354 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-29 · accession 0001613103-24-000072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-28 · accession 0001613103-25-000091 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-26 · accession 0001628280-26-044354 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-29 · accession 0001613103-23-000040 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-28 · accession 0001613103-24-000072 (CommercialPaper)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-26 · accession 0001613103-25-000091 (CommercialPaper)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2026-04-24 · accession 0001628280-26-044354 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-29 · accession 0001613103-23-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-28 · accession 0001613103-24-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-26 · accession 0001613103-25-000091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-25 · accession 0001628280-26-044354 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)