MeritValue

Mondelez International, Inc.

MDLZdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Mondelez International, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.33 and $49.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.7B1$31.5B2$36B3$36.4B3$38.5B3
Net income$4.3B4$2.72B5$4.96B6$4.61B6$2.45B6
Operating cash flow$4.14B7$3.91B8$4.71B9$4.91B9$4.51B9
Capital expenditure$965M10$906M11$1.11B12$1.39B12$1.28B12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.18B7$3B8$3.6B9$3.52B9$3.24B9
Total debt$216M13$2.3B14$420M15$71M16$2.69B16
Cash & equivalents$3.55B17$1.95B18$1.88B18$1.4B18$2.2B18
Diluted shares1.41B1.39B1.37B1.35B1.30B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$199.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.71

10 shares is a claim on $199.06 of net worth that earned you $18.88 and generated $24.92 of cash last year, against $20.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 10%FY23 18%FY24 20%FY25 10%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 1144% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.33 and $49.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$49.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$3.52B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$3.52B
Earnings Power Value
$34.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.4
Base4.3%$46.46
Bull9.3%$57.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001103982-24-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001103982-25-000030 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005345 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001103982-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001103982-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005345 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001103982-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001103982-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005345 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001103982-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001103982-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005345 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001103982-23-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001103982-24-000019 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001103982-25-000030 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005345 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001103982-25-000030 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005345 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)