Medline Inc.
MDLNdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Medline Inc. earns about 11% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.79 and $20.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.2B1 | $25.5B1 | — | $28.4B1 |
| Net income | $234M2 | $1.16B2 | $1.15B2 | $1.16B3 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.69B4 | $1.77B4 | — | $1.74B4 |
| Capital expenditure | $275M5 | $354M5 | — | $447M5 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.41B4 | $1.42B4 | — | $1.3B4 |
| Total debt | — | $16.6B6 | — | $12.6B6 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.59B7 | $199M8 | — | $1.94B8 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | 810.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $132.56 of net worth that earned you $14.31 and generated $16.01 of cash last year, against $156.02 of debt.
It earned about 11% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.79 and $20.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.41B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.41B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.16B
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $11.66 |
| Base | 5.0% | $17.68 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $24.89 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002046386-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)