MeritValue

MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

MDGLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -95% on equity, but has diluted owners by 36% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$180.1M3$958.4M3
Net income−$241.8M4−$295.4M5−$373.6M6−$465.9M6−$288.3M6
Operating cash flow−$183.9M7−$224.9M8−$324.2M9−$455.6M9−$189.6M9
Capital expenditure$209,00010$217,00011$1.48M12$1.46M12$467,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$184.1M7−$225.1M8−$325.7M9−$457M9−$190M9
Total debt$013$119M14$231M15$235.1M16$679.8M16
Cash & equivalents$36.3M17$331.5M18$99.9M19$100M20$198.7M20
Diluted shares16.5M17.1M18.7M21.3M22.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$268.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$128.5
Free cash flow it threw off
−$84.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$303

10 shares is a claim on $268.65 of net worth that earned you −$128.5 and generated −$84.7 of cash last year, against $303 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-95% avg · 5y
FY21 -123%FY22 -150%FY23 -92%FY24 -62%FY25 -48%

It earned an average -95% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+36% shares · 5y

Share count is up 36% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-060052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007980 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009514 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007376 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007980 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009514 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007376 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007980 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009514 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007376 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007980 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009514 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-060052 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007376 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007980 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009514 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-060052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007376 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007980 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009514 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)