Medicus Pharma Ltd.

MDCXdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Medicus Pharma Ltd. earns about -417% on equity, but has diluted owners by 397% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—
Net income	−$5.31M¹	−$11.2M²	−$47.3M²
Operating cash flow	−$4.16M³	−$10.2M⁴	−$22.8M⁴
Capital expenditure	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—
Total debt	—	$0⁵	$5.25M⁵
Cash & equivalents	$1.72M⁶	$4.16M⁷	$8.71M⁷
Diluted shares	3.5M	9.6M	17.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$0.04

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$27.36

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

$3.03

10 shares is a claim on −$0.04 of net worth that earned you −$27.36 last year, against $3.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-417% avg · 3y

FY23 -478%FY24 -356%FY25 —

It earned an average -417% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+397% shares · 3y

Share count is up 397% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006485 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001606 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006485 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001606 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001606 (DebtCurrent)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006485 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)