MeritValue

MongoDB, Inc.

MDBdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MongoDB, Inc. earns about -52% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 26% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.69 and $41.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$873.8M1$1.28B2$1.68B3$2.01B3$2.46B3
Net income−$306.9M4−$345.4M5−$176.6M6−$129.1M6−$71.2M6
Operating cash flow$6.98M7−$13M8$121.5M9$150.2M9$505.1M9
Capital expenditure$8.07M10$7.24M11$6.07M12$29.6M12$4.96M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.09M7−$20.2M8$115.4M9$120.6M9$500.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$473.9M13$455.8M14$803M15$490.1M15$1.08B15
Diluted shares64.6M68.6M71.2M74.6M81.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$363.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.56
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $363.38 of net worth that earned you −$8.76 and generated $61.56 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-52% avg · 5y
FY22 -119%FY23 -90%FY24 -46%FY25 -4%FY26 -2%

It earned about -52% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+26% shares · 5y

Share count is up 26% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.69 and $41.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$120.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$39.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$120.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $39.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.55
Base5.0%$39.69
Bull10.0%$45.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001441816-24-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001441816-25-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016799 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001441816-24-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001441816-25-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016799 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001441816-24-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001441816-25-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016799 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001441816-24-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001441816-25-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016799 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001441816-24-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001441816-25-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016799 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)