MeritValue

Spectral AI, Inc.

MDAIdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Spectral AI, Inc. earns about -20% on equity, but has diluted owners by 102% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$25.4M1$18.1M2$29.6M3$19.7M3
Net income−$2.15M4−$2.91M5−$20.9M6−$15.2M7−$7.57M7
Operating cash flow−$825,5938−$1.16M9−$13.2M10−$9.2M11−$9.92M11
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt————$14.8M12
Cash & equivalents$769,43213$14.2M14$4.79M14$5.2M15$15.4M16
Diluted shares—13.1M14.1M17.9M26.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$2.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.85
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.58

10 shares is a claim on −$2.16 of net worth that earned you −$2.85 last year, against $5.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -24%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -20% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+102% shares · 5y

Share count is up 102% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027863 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026157 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033808 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015385 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027863 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026157 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033808 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015385 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027863 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033808 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033808 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015385 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027863 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033808 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)