MeritValue

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.

MDdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.91B1$1.97B2$1.99B3$2.01B3$1.91B3
Net income$131M4$66.3M5−$60.4M6−$99.1M6$165.4M6
Operating cash flow$76.7M7$166.9M8$137.3M9$206.6M9$271.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$989.7M10$637.2M11$622.2M12$611.2M12—
Cash & equivalents$387.4M13$9.82M14$73.3M15$229.9M16$375.2M16
Diluted shares85.8M84.1M82.2M83.3M85.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$101.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.4
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $101.55 of net worth that earned you $19.4 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 6%FY23 -0%FY24 -7%FY25 34%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$8.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016794 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023730 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058074 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016794 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023730 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058074 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016794 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023730 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058074 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003127 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016794 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023730 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016794 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)