MeritValue

MARCUS CORP

MCSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

MARCUS CORP earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.03 and $1.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$458.2M1$677.4M2$729.6M3$735.6M3$758.5M3
Net income−$43.3M4−$12M5$14.8M6−$7.79M6$12.7M6
Operating cash flow$46.3M7$93.2M8$102.6M9$103.9M9$84.2M9
Capital expenditure$17.1M10$36.8M11$38.8M12$79.2M12$83.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$29.2M7$56.4M8$63.9M9$24.7M9$989,0009
Total debt$477.6M13$360.9M14$339.7M15$318.3M16$318M16
Cash & equivalents$17.7M17$21.7M18$55.6M19$40.8M20$23.4M20
Diluted shares31.4M31.5M41.0M31.9M31.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$101.67

10 shares is a claim on $146.23 of net worth that earned you $4.06 and generated $0.32 of cash last year, against $101.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 1%FY23 3%FY24 -1%FY25 1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 33% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.03 and $1.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$24.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$24.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.88
Base0.0%$1.88
Bull5.0%$4.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0000062234-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0000062234-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000062234-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0000062234-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0000062234-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000062234-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0000062234-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0000062234-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000062234-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0000062234-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0000062234-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000062234-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0000062234-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0000062234-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000062234-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-26 · accession 0000062234-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0000062234-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0000062234-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000062234-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-26 · accession 0000062234-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)