MeritValue

MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC

MCRIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.79 and $281.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$395.4M1$477.9M2$501.5M3$522.2M3$545.1M3
Net income$68.5M4$87.5M5$82.4M6$72.8M6$101.4M6
Operating cash flow$128.1M7$139.8M8$173M9$140.7M9$164.7M9
Capital expenditure$46.9M10$39.5M11$49M12$47.4M12$36.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$81.2M7$100.3M8$124M9$93.3M9$128.4M9
Total debt——$5.5M13——
Cash & equivalents$33.5M14$38.8M15$43.4M15$58.8M15$96.5M15
Diluted shares19.4M19.6M19.6M19.0M18.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$288.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $288.14 of net worth that earned you $54.34 and generated $68.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 17%FY23 17%FY24 16%FY25 23%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.79 and $281.76 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$281.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.2%
  • fcfBase$124M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$184.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.2%
  • fcfBase$124M
Earnings Power Value
$45.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$82.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $184.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$100.15
Base15.2%$184.62
Bull20.0%$221.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018717 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018717 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018717 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018717 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002045 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018717 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)