MeritValue

Seres Therapeutics, Inc.

MCRBdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Seres Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -589% on equity, and has bought back 90% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$143.9M1$7.13M1$02$02$789,0002
Net income−$65.6M3−$250.2M4−$113.7M5$136,0005$5.7M5
Operating cash flow$6.69M6−$228.8M7−$117.4M8−$148.6M8$1.12M8
Capital expenditure$9.57M9$9.82M10$7.98M11$380,00011$252,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.88M6−$238.6M7−$125.3M8−$149M8$865,0008
Total debt$24.1M12$50M13$110M14——
Cash & equivalents$180M15$163M16$128M17$30.8M18$45.8M18
Diluted shares91.7M108.1M6.4M7.8M8.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $49.85 of net worth that earned you $6.42 and generated $0.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-589% avg · 5y
FY21 -50%FY22 -2320%FY23 —FY24 1%FY25 13%

It earned an average -589% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−90% shares · 5y

Share count is down 90% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 357% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006374 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103276 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025464 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038427 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103276 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025464 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038427 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103276 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025464 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038427 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103276 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002435 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006374 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025464 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025464 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038427 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103276 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)