MeritValue

MOODYS CORP /DE/

MCOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOODYS CORP /DE/ earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $118.55 and $346.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.22B1$5.47B2$5.92B3$7.09B3$7.72B3
Net income$2.21B4$1.37B5$1.61B6$2.06B6$2.46B6
Operating cash flow$2.01B7$1.47B8$2.15B9$2.84B9$2.9B9
Capital expenditure$139M10$283M11$271M12$317M12$326M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.87B7$1.19B8$1.88B9$2.52B9$2.58B9
Total debt$14.8B13$14.8B14$14B15$14.9B16$14B16
Cash & equivalents$1.81B17$1.77B18$2.13B19$2.41B20$2.38B20
Diluted shares187.9M184.7M184.0M182.7M179.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$225.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$136.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$143.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$777.54

10 shares is a claim on $225.35 of net worth that earned you $136.69 and generated $143.14 of cash last year, against $777.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 9%FY23 11%FY24 13%FY25 16%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $118.55 and $346.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$346.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.5%
  • fcfBase$2.52B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$249.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.5%
  • fcfBase$2.52B
Earnings Power Value
$118.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.06B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$83.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $249.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$135.72
Base10.5%$249.17
Bull15.5%$319.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001059556-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001059556-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009136 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001059556-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001059556-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009136 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001059556-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001059556-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009136 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001059556-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001059556-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009136 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001059556-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001059556-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001059556-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009136 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001059556-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001059556-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001059556-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009136 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)