MeritValue

MCKESSON CORP

MCKdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $275.14 and $1,304.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$264B1$276.7B2$309B3$359.1B3$403.4B3
Net income$1.11B4$3.56B5$3B6$3.3B6$4.76B6
Operating cash flow$4.43B7$5.16B8$4.31B9$6.09B9$6.16B9
Capital expenditure$388M10$390M11$431M12$537M12$436M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.05B7$4.77B8$3.88B9$5.55B9$5.72B9
Total debt$5.88B13$5.59B14$5.63B15$5.65B16$6.53B16
Cash & equivalents$3.53B17$4.68B18$4.58B19$5.69B19$3.98B19
Diluted shares154.1M142.2M134.1M128.1M124.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$175.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$383.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$460.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$525.87

10 shares is a claim on −$175.02 of net worth that earned you $383.72 and generated $460.84 of cash last year, against $525.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $275.14 and $1,304.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,304.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.7%
  • fcfBase$5.55B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$985.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.7%
  • fcfBase$5.55B
Earnings Power Value
$275.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $985.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$618.19
Base10.7%$985.89
Bull15.7%$1,210.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000927653-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000927653-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000927653-26-000069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000927653-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000927653-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000927653-26-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000927653-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000927653-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000927653-26-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000927653-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000927653-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000927653-26-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000927653-23-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000927653-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000927653-25-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000927653-26-000069 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000927653-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000927653-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000927653-26-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)