MeritValue

MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC

MCHPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.39 and $24.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$6.82B1$8.44B2$7.63B3$4.4B3$4.71B3
Net income$1.29B4$2.24B5$1.91B6−$500,0006$230M6
Operating cash flow$2.84B7$3.62B8$2.89B9$898.1M9$962.1M9
Capital expenditure$370.1M10$486.2M11$285.1M12$126M12$91.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.47B7$3.13B8$2.61B9$772.1M9$871M9
Total debt$15.4B13$12.9B14$12B15$11.3B16$11B16
Cash & equivalents$317.4M17$234M18$319.7M19$771.7M20$240.3M20
Diluted shares565.9M557.3M548.0M537.3M545.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$117.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$201.63

10 shares is a claim on $117.98 of net worth that earned you $4.22 and generated $15.98 of cash last year, against $201.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 7%FY23 12%FY24 11%FY25 0%FY26 1%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.39 and $24.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$871M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$871M
Earnings Power Value
$24.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.29B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.1
Base0.0%$3.1
Bull5.0%$8.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000827054-24-000098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000827054-25-000077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000827054-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000827054-24-000098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000827054-25-000077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000827054-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000827054-24-000098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000827054-25-000077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000827054-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000827054-24-000098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000827054-25-000077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000827054-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000827054-23-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000827054-24-000098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000827054-25-000077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000827054-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000827054-23-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000827054-24-000098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000827054-25-000077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000827054-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)