MeritValue

Mechanics Bancorp

MCHBdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Mechanics Bancorp earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 887% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.3 and $19.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$244.3M1$304.3M1$399.7M2$48.1M3$49.7M3
Net income$115.4M4$66.5M4−$27.5M5$29M6$265.7M6
Operating cash flow$173M7$218.3M7$8.02M8$292.3M9$193.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.94M10$6.79M10$3.81M11$6.37M12$6.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$170.1M7$211.5M7$4.21M8$285.9M9$187.1M9
Total debt$167M13$1.24B14$1.97B15$1B16$192M16
Cash & equivalents$65.2M17$72.8M18$215.7M19$999.7M20$1.03B20
Diluted shares21.1M19.0M18.8M202.1M208.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$137.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.2

10 shares is a claim on $137.13 of net worth that earned you $12.73 and generated $8.96 of cash last year, against $9.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 7%FY23 4%FY24 20%FY25 37%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+887% shares · 5y

Share count is up 887% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.3 and $19.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$187.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$187.1M
Earnings Power Value
$3.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.82
Base3.2%$18.75
Bull8.2%$22.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001518715-24-000075 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001518715-25-000026 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001518715-26-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001518715-24-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001518715-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001518715-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001518715-24-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001518715-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001518715-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001518715-24-000075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001518715-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001518715-26-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001518715-23-000047 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001518715-24-000075 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001518715-25-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001518715-26-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001518715-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001518715-24-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001518715-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001518715-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)