MeritValue

MCDONALDS CORP

MCDdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $101.5M and $157M a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23.2B1$23.2B2$25.5B3$25.9B3$26.9B3
Net income$7.55B4$6.18B5$8.47B6$8.22B6$8.56B6
Operating cash flow$9.14B7$7.39B8$9.61B9$9.45B9$10.6B9
Capital expenditure$2.04B10$1.9B11$2.36B12$2.78B12$3.37B12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.1B7$5.49B8$7.26B9$6.67B9$7.19B9
Total debt$71.2B13$71.8B14$79B15$77.6B16$81.5B16
Cash & equivalents$4.71B17$2.58B18$4.58B19$1.09B20$774M20
Diluted shares751.8741.3732.3721.9716.4

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$25M
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$119.5M
Free cash flow it threw off
$100.3M
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.14B

10 shares is a claim on −$25M of net worth that earned you $119.5M and generated $100.3M of cash last year, against $1.14B of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 14% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $101.5M and $157M a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$157M
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.4%
  • fcfBase$7.19B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$101.5M
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.4%
  • fcfBase$7.19B
Earnings Power Value
$118.9M
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.22B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $101.5M
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.7M
Base9.4%$101.5M
Bull14.4%$149.8M

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000063908-24-000072 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000063908-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000063908-26-000035 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000063908-24-000072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000063908-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000063908-26-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000063908-24-000072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000063908-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000063908-26-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000063908-24-000072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000063908-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000063908-26-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000063908-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000063908-24-000072 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000063908-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000063908-26-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000063908-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000063908-24-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000063908-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000063908-26-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)