MeritValue

MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.

MCBSdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MetroCity Bankshares, Inc. earns about 72% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.95 and $48.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$61.7M1$62.6M2$51.6M3$64.5M3$68.5M3
Operating cash flow$65.4M4$134.7M5$82.1M6$63.5M6$37.7M6
Capital expenditure$384,0007$2.35M8$4.93M9$1.29M9$674,0009
Free cash flow (derived)$65M4$132.3M5$77.2M6$62.2M6$37M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$441.3M10$179.5M11$144.8M12$249.9M13$383.7M13
Diluted shares25.8M25.7M25.5M25.6M26.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$209.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $209.26 of net worth that earned you $26.35 and generated $14.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
72% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 48%FY23 49%FY24 89%FY25 103%

It earned about 72% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.95 and $48.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$46.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$62.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$62.2M
Earnings Power Value
$24.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48.94
Base0.0%$48.94
Bull5.0%$57.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747068-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747068-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747068-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747068-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747068-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747068-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747068-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747068-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747068-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747068-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747068-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747068-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747068-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)