MBX Biosciences, Inc.

MBXdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MBX Biosciences, Inc. earns about -23% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3483% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—
Net income	−$32.6M¹	−$61.9M²	−$87M²
Operating cash flow	−$32M³	−$54.7M⁴	−$79.9M⁴
Capital expenditure	$129,000⁵	$874,000⁶	$1.93M⁶
Free cash flow (derived)	−$32.1M³	−$55.6M⁴	−$81.9M⁴
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$30.5M⁷	$49.4M⁸	$75.3M⁸
Diluted shares	1.0M	10.6M	36.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$101.14

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$23.82

Free cash flow it threw off

−$22.43

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $101.14 of net worth that earned you −$23.82 and generated −$22.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-23% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 -23%FY25 -23%

It earned an average -23% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+3483% shares · 3y

Share count is up 3483% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039838 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103121 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103121 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039838 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103121 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103121 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)