MeritValue

MALIBU BOATS, INC.

MBUUdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MALIBU BOATS, INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.23 and $54.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$926.5M1$1.21B2$1.39B3$829M3$807.6M3
Net income$109.8M4$157.6M5$104.5M6−$55.9M6$14.9M6
Operating cash flow$131.3M7$164.8M8$184.7M9$55.6M9$56.5M9
Capital expenditure$30.7M10$55.1M11$54.8M12$76M12$27.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$100.6M7$109.8M8$129.9M9−$20.4M9$28.6M9
Total debt$286.6M13$239.2M14$014$015$36M15
Cash & equivalents$41.5M16$83.7M17$78.9M18$26.9M19$37M19
Diluted shares21.0M21.0M20.6M20.4M19.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$261.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.28

10 shares is a claim on $261.73 of net worth that earned you $7.55 and generated $14.52 of cash last year, against $18.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 24%FY23 20%FY24 -9%FY25 3%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 87% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.23 and $54.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.6M
Earnings Power Value
$54.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$104.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.79
Base0.0%$20.79
Bull5.0%$25.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001590976-23-000069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001590976-24-000073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001590976-25-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001590976-23-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001590976-24-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001590976-25-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001590976-23-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001590976-24-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001590976-25-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001590976-23-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001590976-24-000073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001590976-25-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001590976-22-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001590976-23-000069 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001590976-25-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001590976-22-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001590976-23-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001590976-24-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001590976-25-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)