MeritValue

Moleculin Biotech, Inc.

MBRXdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Moleculin Biotech, Inc. earns about -126% on equity, and has bought back 96% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$04$04
Net income−$15.9M5−$29M6−$29.8M7−$26M8−$33.6M8
Operating cash flow−$19M9−$27.6M10−$23.6M11−$23.9M12−$22.7M12
Capital expenditure$19,00013$67,00014$124,00015$13,00016$016
Free cash flow (derived)−$19M9−$27.7M10−$23.7M11−$23.9M12−$22.7M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$70.9M17$43.1M18$23.6M19$4.28M20$8.88M20
Diluted shares26.9M1.9M2.0M137,7201.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$126.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$283.31
Free cash flow it threw off
−$191.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $126.68 of net worth that earned you −$283.31 and generated −$191.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-126% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -56%FY23 -96%FY24 -232%FY25 -224%

It earned an average -126% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−96% shares · 5y

Share count is down 96% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007537 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009044 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008751 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008841 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007537 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008841 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007537 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008841 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007537 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008751 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008841 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007537 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008841 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)