MeritValue

Mobileye Global Inc.

MBLYdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Mobileye Global Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.44 and $7.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.39B1$1.87B2$2.08B3$1.65B3$1.89B3
Net income−$75M4−$82M5−$27M6−$3.09B6−$392M6
Operating cash flow$599M7$546M8$394M9$400M9$602M9
Capital expenditure$143M10$111M11$98M12$81M12$79M12
Free cash flow (derived)$456M7$435M8$296M9$319M9$523M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$616M13$1.02B14$1.21B15$1.43B16$1.84B16
Diluted shares750.0M759.0M805.0M809.0M813.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $146.14 of net worth that earned you −$4.82 and generated $6.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -0%FY23 0%FY24 -23%FY25 -3%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.44 and $7.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$319M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$319M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.86
Base0.0%$7.86
Bull5.0%$9.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001104659-24-026792 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000127 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-014300 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001104659-24-026792 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000127 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-014300 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001104659-24-026792 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000127 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-014300 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001104659-24-026792 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000127 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-014300 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001104659-23-030588 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026792 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001410578-25-000127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-014300 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)