MBIA INC

MBIdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$189M¹	$154M²	$7M³	$42M³	$80M³
Net income	−$445M⁴	−$195M⁵	$477M⁶	$435M⁶	−$177M⁶
Operating cash flow	$511M⁷	−$418M⁸	−$195M⁹	−$176M⁹	$38M⁹
Capital expenditure	$1M¹⁰	$0¹⁰	$0¹⁰	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	$510M⁷	−$418M⁸	−$195M⁹	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$160M¹¹	$78M¹²	$108M¹²	$87M¹²	$71M¹²
Diluted shares	49.5M	49.8M	48.2M	47.4M	49.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$453.95

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$35.92

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on −$453.95 of net worth that earned you −$35.92 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

Management signal · capital allocation

−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts