MeritValue

MasterBrand, Inc.

MBCdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MasterBrand, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.46 and $34.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.86B1$3.28B2$2.73B3$2.7B3$2.73B3
Net income$182.6M4$155.4M5$182M6$125.9M6$26.7M6
Operating cash flow$148.2M7$235.6M8$405.6M9$292M9$195.7M9
Capital expenditure$51.6M10$55.9M11$57.3M12$80.9M12$78.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.6M7$179.7M8$348.3M9$211.1M9$117.5M9
Total debt—$979M13$707.8M14$2.03B15$974.5M15
Cash & equivalents$141.4M16$101.1M17$148.7M18$120.6M18$183.3M18
Diluted shares128.0M129.1M129.9M130.9M129.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$104.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$75.43

10 shares is a claim on $104.07 of net worth that earned you $2.07 and generated $9.09 of cash last year, against $75.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 13%FY24 4%FY25 1%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.46 and $34.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.4%
  • fcfBase$211.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.4%
  • fcfBase$211.1M
Earnings Power Value
$12.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$155.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.22
Base8.4%$27.32
Bull13.4%$34.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001941365-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001941365-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001941365-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001941365-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001941365-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001941365-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001941365-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001941365-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001941365-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001941365-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001941365-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001941365-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)