MeritValue

MediaAlpha, Inc.

MAXdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MediaAlpha, Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.25 and $29.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$645.3M1$459.1M2$388.1M3$864.7M3$1.11B3
Net income−$5.28M4−$57.7M5−$40.4M6$16.6M6$25.6M6
Operating cash flow$28.6M7$28.3M8$20.2M9$45.9M9$65.6M9
Capital expenditure$650,00010$98,00011$73,00012$254,00012$340,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$28M7$28.2M8$20.2M9$45.6M9$65.3M9
Total debt$373.6M13$366.1M14$348.6M15$324.9M16$306.8M16
Cash & equivalents$50.6M17$14.5M18$17.3M19$43.3M20$46.9M20
Diluted shares61.3M41.9M45.6M53.0M66.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$45.94

10 shares is a claim on $0.62 of net worth that earned you $3.84 and generated $9.77 of cash last year, against $45.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 6%FY23 -10%FY24 12%FY25 -30%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.25 and $29.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.4%
  • fcfBase$45.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.4%
  • fcfBase$45.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$0.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.87
Base17.4%$16.25
Bull20.0%$18.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818383-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818383-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818383-26-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818383-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818383-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818383-26-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818383-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818383-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818383-26-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818383-23-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818383-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818383-26-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818383-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818383-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818383-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818383-26-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818383-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818383-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818383-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818383-26-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)