MeritValue

Matson, Inc.

MATXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Matson, Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 25% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $88.57 and $153.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.93B1$4.34B2$3.09B3$3.42B3$3.34B3
Net income$927.4M4$1.06B5$297.1M6$476.4M6$444.8M6
Operating cash flow$984.1M7$1.27B8$510.5M9$767.8M9$547.1M9
Capital expenditure—$209.3M10$248.4M11$310.1M11$393.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)—$1.06B8$262.1M9$457.7M9$153.7M9
Total debt$1.31B12$1.1B13$909.3M14$831.1M15$752.7M15
Cash & equivalents$282.4M16$249.8M17$134M18$266.8M18$141.9M18
Diluted shares43.2M39.3M35.7M34.2M32.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$856.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$138.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$233.76

10 shares is a claim on $856.83 of net worth that earned you $138.14 and generated $47.73 of cash last year, against $233.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 34%FY23 10%FY24 15%FY25 13%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−25% shares · 5y

Share count is down 25% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $88.57 and $153.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$88.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$262.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$97.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$262.1M
Earnings Power Value
$153.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$476.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$163.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $97.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$97.33
Base0.0%$97.33
Bull5.0%$125.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001570 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001875 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020944 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001570 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001875 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020944 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001570 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001875 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020944 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001875 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020944 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001961 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001570 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001875 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020944 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001570 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001875 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020944 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)