MeritValue

Mativ Holdings, Inc.

MATVdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Mativ Holdings, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 74% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$930.7M1$1.64B2$2.03B3$1.98B3$1.99B3
Net income$88.9M4−$6.6M5−$309.5M6−$48.7M6−$337.4M6
Operating cash flow$58M7$202.2M8$106.6M9$94.8M9$133.8M9
Capital expenditure$19.4M10$45.6M11$66M12$55M12$40M12
Free cash flow (derived)$38.6M7$156.6M8$40.6M9$39.8M9$93.8M9
Total debt$2.56B13$3.41B14$2.23B15$2.2B16$2.05B16
Cash & equivalents$71.2M17$101.1M18$120.2M18$94.3M19$84.2M19
Diluted shares31.4M42.4M54.5M54.3M54.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$91.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$61.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$375.74

10 shares is a claim on $91.33 of net worth that earned you −$61.79 and generated $17.18 of cash last year, against $375.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 -1%FY23 -11%FY24 -2%FY25 -15%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+74% shares · 5y

Share count is up 74% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$40.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$40.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000623-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000623-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000623-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000623-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000623-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000623-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000623-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000623-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000623-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000623-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000623-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000623-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000623-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000623-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000623-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001000623-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000623-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000623-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001000623-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)