MeritValue

Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd

MATHdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd earns about -25% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 239% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$225,7491$2.16M2$5.69M3$16.8M3$44.6M3
Net income−$5.15M4−$14.4M5−$20.6M6−$3.68M6$15.8M6
Operating cash flow−$2.79M7−$4.79M8−$1.14M9−$11.6M9$71,9909
Capital expenditure——$3,16010$1,28110$47,30910
Free cash flow (derived)——−$1.14M9−$11.6M9$24,6819
Total debt$5.42M11$385,04412$120,93113$35,68514$187,96914
Cash & equivalents$982,53815$5.29M16$6.75M16$4.88M16$6.92M16
Diluted shares11.7M23.6M37.2M34.7M39.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.05

10 shares is a claim on $9.26 of net worth that earned you $3.99 and generated $0.01 of cash last year, against $0.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-25% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -112%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 42%

It earned an average -25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+239% shares · 5y

Share count is up 239% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 97% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001213900-21-039832 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-22-048696 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069404 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001213900-21-039832 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-092230 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069404 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001213900-21-039832 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-092230 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069404 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069404 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001213900-22-048696 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-012567 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-092230 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069404 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001213900-21-039832 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069404 (CashAndCashEquivalents)