MeritValue

MATTEL INC /DE/

MATdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MATTEL INC /DE/ earns about 8% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.46B1$5.43B2$5.44B3$5.38B3$5.35B3
Net income$903M4$393.9M5$214.4M6$541.8M6$397.6M6
Operating cash flow$485.5M7$442.8M8$869.8M9$800.6M9$593.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.14B10$4.65B11$4.66B12$4.67B13$4.66B13
Cash & equivalents$731.4M14$761.2M15$1.26B16$1.39B17$1.24B17
Diluted shares357.3M359.6M357.1M343.3M321.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.36
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$144.92

10 shares is a claim on $69.39 of net worth that earned you $12.36 last year, against $144.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 8%FY23 5%FY24 9%FY25 7%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$397.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004416 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004416 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)