MeritValue

MATTEL INC /DE/

MATdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MATTEL INC /DE/ earns about 14% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.36 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.46B1$5.43B2$5.44B3$5.38B3$5.35B3
Net income$903M4$393.9M5$214.4M6$541.8M6$397.6M6
Operating cash flow$485.5M7$442.8M8$869.8M9$800.6M9$593.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.57B10,11$2.33B12,13$2.33B14,15$2.33B16,17$2.33B16,17
Cash & equivalents$731.4M18$761.2M19$1.26B20$1.39B21$1.24B21
Diluted shares357.3M359.6M357.1M343.3M321.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.36
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$72.46

10 shares is a claim on $69.39 of net worth that earned you $12.36 last year, against $72.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 13%FY23 9%FY24 16%FY25 11%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.36
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$397.6M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.91
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-03-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-02-26 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-03-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-02-26 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-03-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-02-26 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2023-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004416 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K filed 2023-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004416 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K filed 2024-03-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K filed 2024-03-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K filed 2025-02-26 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-02-26 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K filed 2023-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004416 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K filed 2024-03-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011371 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K filed 2025-02-26 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007887 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010716 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)