MeritValue

MARA Holdings, Inc.

MARAdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARA Holdings, Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 258% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.2M1$9.88M2$57.7M3$96.5M3$58.7M3
Net income−$29.8M4−$694M5$261.2M6$541.3M6−$1.31B6
Operating cash flow−$19M7−$176.5M8−$315.7M9−$677M9−$802.7M9
Capital expenditure$273.9M10$41.1M11$27.6M12$250.8M12$407.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$292.8M7−$217.6M8−$343.3M9−$927.8M9−$1.21B9
Total debt$728.4M13$1.56B14$651.3M14$4.89B15$7.2B15
Cash & equivalents$268.6M16$103.7M17$357.3M18$391.8M18$547.1M18
Diluted shares99.3M113.5M192.3M311.8M355.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$97.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$36.93
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$202.72

10 shares is a claim on $97.75 of net worth that earned you −$36.93 and generated −$34.06 of cash last year, against $202.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -30%FY23 14%FY24 6%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+258% shares · 5y

Share count is up 258% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 888% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025261 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001507605-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001507605-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025261 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001507605-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001507605-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025261 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001507605-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001507605-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025261 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001507605-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001507605-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007879 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025261 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001507605-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001507605-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001507605-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)